What do mass protests mean for Serbia? Belgrade analyst: Vucic actually does care
AFTER Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic announced yesterday that the coronavirus lockdown would be reinforced due to the worsening of the epidemiological situation, thousands of disgruntled people came out on the streets which led to the clash between the protesters and the police. Some protesters broke into the parliament building, and the police started using batons and tear gas.
In the riots that lasted for hours, dozens of people were injured, both the police officers and protesters and five police cars were set on fire. That's why Vucic addressed the public today and blamed the far-right extremists for the riots, and he even mentioned some members of the foreign intelligence agencies. At one point, he fiercely attacked the Croatian media and politicians.
During most of his speech, Vucic was talking about the far-right extremists who are behind the riots and who, as he mentioned several times, hate migrants, 5G network, and are flat earth supporters. He also accused the opposition politicians of encouraging the riots, and he said several times that they openly operate against Serbia.
We talked with the Belgrade reporter and analyst Zoran Kusovac, who commented on Vucic's speech for Index, and revealed if the protests that are announced will turn into something bigger, and what can Serbia expect of all this.
"Vucic actually does care"
"This speech is an interesting image of Vucic's state of mind. The fact that, in his speech, he backed down from reintroducing the lockdown shows that Vucic actually does care about what's happening. He wants to avoid it," said Kusovac for Index.
He said that Vucic failed to scare off the protesters, but at this moment, it seems that he's not pleased with these protests because they coincide with the situation with Kosovo, coronavirus, and the relations within the party.
"Until August 2, Vucic has to give a mandate for the government, so this is definitely not the right moment to focus on the protests. At the same time, no matter how much he backed down, Vucic still tried to give the impression that he was not doing that because of the violence outbreak yesterday. He openly provoked the opposition politicians by calling them names. He called several protesters criminals, brought out their records. However, it's dubious whether he was telling the truth. But the state of public and the media in Serbia is such that he probably achieved the effect by doing that, even if he may be proven wrong later," said Kusovac.
For example, for a young man who said that his father died of coronavirus due to the lack of respirators, Vucic said that he has a record, although it may be due to a parking ticket.
"Vucic wanted to show that all of them are criminals, he mentioned Stier, a member of the Croatian parliament, as a big Serbian enemy. By doing that, he wanted to send a message to his followers, to whom his speech today was intended, that he is the one to protect Serbia from all of those who want to peck it as international crows. He also mentioned intelligence agencies," said Kusovac for Index.
"He is like Trump"
He pointed out that Vucic, on the one hand, clearly wants to avoid the riots to escalate and, in fact, any situation that would bring Serbia to an international focus, because until now, Serbia wasn't particularly interesting to anyone.
"The Serbian people have always been wondering why the world doesn't help them bring down one dictator, but as long as Vucic is a guarantee that some steps for Kosovo will be made, he is more acceptable to the West than the opposition politicians. Simply, the international situation is such that the world won't do anything to remove Vucic, who is well-known, as not to bring some unknown opposition politicians," said Kusovac.
He points out that Vucic doesn't want anything to happen that would change the opinion of him.
"Tentatively speaking, he is like Trump. He's not considered to be a dictator like Kim Jong-un, but he's a nationalist, an autocrat, and if people put up with him, that's their problem. Generally, Vucic is pleased with the image of him in the world because he can rule in ways that aren't always democratic. It's good for him that the world doesn't deal with Serbia and how much corruption and election fraud there is. He backed down on reintroducing the lockdown just so Serbia wouldn't be broadcasted on CNN anymore. That's all he cares about. He wants to be in charge of the news from Serbia," Kusovac concluded.
Kusovac: The protests were spontaneous
As far as the protests go, Kusovac said that the protests were spontaneous and not orchestrated.
"I talked to the women who were at the protest with little children. One of them told me that she saw people gathering up, and then she saw other women with children. Namely, there is a park across the parliament building, so women with children were coming there. To all of us, the first reaction to Vucic's announcement to reintroduce the lockdown was disturbing because we had really strict restrictive measures," said Kusovac.
He said that there's no doubt that the measures were effective then.
"Strictly from a non-political viewpoint, it surely makes sense because the second wave of coronavirus is more complex, so relaxing the measures would lead to an escalation of coronavirus. Coffee shops, rafts, and parks are packed with people, big wedding celebrations and parties are being organized; people are psychologically making up for all those months spent in the lockdown, and that leads to an eerie spread of the infection. If people hadn't seen that there is also a political side in all of it, that the elections were held, that the match between Zvezda and Partizani didn't take place with 20,000 people, which certainly contributed to the spread of coronavirus, if it hadn't been all of that, maybe that spontaneous reaction that led to the protests wouldn't have been so determined," said Kusovac.
He pointed out that he was talking with a lot of people, and he found out that the people of Serbia had simply had enough.
He said that although some politicians failed in trying to take over the protest because the protesters kicked them out.
What does all of this mean for Serbia?
"The question is who started the riots; I don't believe it was spontaneous. Maybe Srdjan Nogo's radical extremist group started the violence, which is prone to violence. Another theory represented by the opposition politicians is that Vucic's supporters started the protest, i.e., the criminals with the state security badge. However, I don't believe that it would do Vucic a favor, so I think it's not them.
"Vucic's balance of power at this moment is such that he has enough support from the institutions he manages and he can control the media and a large part of the nation which is politically unsophisticated and likes the situation where they have a leader. To conclude, I think that, at this moment, there is no force nor a group of people in Serbia who would make the protests something big and lasting. I believe that the situation will calm down soon," said Kusovac in the end.
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